Round 1 Probability Report

Data-Driven NCAA Tournament Bracket Model

A neutral-court win probability for every Round 1 matchup, built from a full-season power rating model. Not gut feelings. Not talking heads. Math.

10,000+Games analyzed

362Teams rated

32Matchups covered

Get the Report — $15

Available now. Delivered via email within 24 hours of purchase.

The Problem

Every bracket pool is won or lost in Round 1.

Roughly 1 in 4 first-round games ends in an upset. But picking the right upsets separates winners from the field. Most people rely on seed matchup history, ESPN narratives, or their alma mater. None of that is calibrated.

~25%

of Round 1 games end in an upset

42%

win rate for underdogs our model flagged as live

0.041

calibration error — predicted ≈ actual

black boxes — methodology fully transparent

How It Works

Four steps. No black boxes.

Every probability in this report is the output of a transparent, auditable pipeline. You can evaluate the methodology yourself.

Season Data

10,000+ Division I games scraped and cleaned from the full regular season, covering every team’s complete body of work.

Power Ratings

A least squares margin-based model rates all 362 D-I teams. Each rating adjusts for opponent strength — a true quality measure independent of schedule.

Logistic Model

Rating differentials between any two teams are converted to neutral-court win probabilities via logistic regression calibrated on this season’s results.

Final Review

Manual injury review applied for confirmed, material absences. Report is reviewed before release.

Backtested Performance

Backtested on the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Trained only on regular season data — zero leakage. Predicted probabilities closely tracked actual outcomes across all five confidence tiers.

Predicted vs. Actual Win Rate

PredictedActual

Backtested on 2025 NCAA Tournament · Round 1 · 32 Games

88%

83.1%

Strong
Favorite

67%

66.7%

Moderate
Favorite

52%

50.3%

Coin
Flip

35%

31.8%

Live
Dog

12%

11.2%

Heavy
Underdog

72.3%

Overall Accuracy

0.041

Avg. Calibration Error

83.1%

Strong Fav. Hit Rate

Sample Output

This is where the edge lives.

The report doesn’t just rank games — it shows you exactly where the bracket is most vulnerable. The matchups below are examples. Your report will reflect the actual 2026 bracket.

1Florida94.3%

16Belmont5.7%

Tier: Strong FavoriteUpset Rank: 32 / 32

⚠ HIGHEST UPSET POTENTIAL

6Miami (FL)52.9%

11Clemson47.1%

Tier: Coin FlipRating Δ: +0.68Upset Rank: 2 / 32

These are the games that decide brackets.

Coin Flip and Live Dog matchups are where most brackets go wrong. The seed says “favorite” — the model says “toss-up.” In backtesting, underdogs the model flagged as live won at 42%, nearly double the baseline upset rate.

5NC State61.4%

12UCLA38.6%

Tier: Moderate FavoriteUpset Rank: 19 / 32

Examples only. Not predictions for any actual 2026 matchup.

What You Get

Everything you need to fill out Round 1.

📊

Win Probabilities

Neutral-court win probability for all 32 Round 1 games.

🎯

Upset Rankings

All matchups ranked by upset risk — most vulnerable favorites first.

📋

Tier Classification

Every game labeled: Coin Flip, Live Dog, Moderate Favorite, or Strong Favorite.

🏥

Injury Adjustments

Manual review for confirmed, material absences applied before release.

Get the Report

One report. Every first-round edge.

$15

2026 NCAA Tournament — Round 1

Get the Report — $15

Delivered via email on Selection Sunday (March 15) after the official bracket is announced. PDF format. Price increases after bracket release.

FAQ

When will I receive the report?

The report is delivered via email on Selection Sunday (March 15, 2026) after the official bracket is announced.

What format is the report?

PDF. Optimized for desktop and mobile viewing.

How is this different from ESPN or KenPom?

This report is purpose-built for bracket completion. Instead of raw power ratings, you get neutral-court win probabilities for every specific matchup, ranked by upset potential and classified into actionable tiers.

What does “neutral-court” mean?

Win probabilities are calibrated as if both teams are playing on a neutral floor, which reflects actual NCAA tournament conditions. No home-court advantage is applied.

Can I get a refund?

All sales are final due to digital delivery.